DRAM contract prices turn higher, Growth in Q4 2023 is expected to be 3~8%

TrendForce has unveiled a recent investigative report, indicating a comprehensive ascension in the average prices of both DRAM and NAND flash memories, commencing from the fourth quarter of 2024. Specifically, DRAM is anticipated to witness a quarterly surge of 3-8%. Whether this upward trajectory persists hinges on suppliers’ steadfastness in implementing production cuts, and the extent of market revival, with the general-purpose server sector being the focal point.

Regarding PC DRAM, the third quarter of 2023 already saw an inception of price hikes. Coupled with stockpiling for novel CPUs, a surge in DDR5 memory demand is foreseen. Given that the original factory inventory remains at elevated levels without any apparent shortages, Samsung is compelled to further amplify its production cutbacks. Manufacturers are also reluctant to further slash DRAM product prices, even contemplating elevating them. It’s projected that the fourth quarter of 2023 will witness a sequential increase in DDR4 prices by 0-5%, and DDR5 by 3-8%, with the PC DRAM contract prices approximating a quarterly rise of 3-8%.

In terms of Server DRAM, the average price of DDR4 is expected to plateau in the fourth quarter of 2023, devoid of further decline. Meanwhile, DDR5 might still experience a price dip. However, with an increasing shipment ratio, the price disparity between the two hovers around 50-60%, thus pulling up the overall average retail price. The contract price for Server DRAM is estimated to sequentially ascend by 3-8%. On the Mobile DRAM front, inventory levels have reverted to a healthy benchmark. With the latter half of the year showing improved market conditions, a sequential growth surpassing 10% is foreseen, with estimated contract price increases for LPDDR4X around 3-8% and LPDDR5(X) around 5-10%. As for Graphics DRAM, buyer sentiment has shifted towards accepting price elevations, coupled with the fervent sales of eSports notebooks, outperforming the overall laptop market. Contract prices are estimated to rise by 3-8% quarterly. In the realm of Consumer DRAM, Samsung has been escalating its production cutbacks since September, reaching 30% by the fourth quarter. With inventories incessantly dwindling, a surge in contract prices is projected, with quarterly hikes of around 3-8%.