PCs Beat Forecast, Yet Slump Persists: 68.5M Shipped in Q3

Recently, the statistics agency IDC released its latest quarterly PC tracking data, revealing that the shipment volume for the third quarter of 2023 stood at 68.5 million units. This figure surpassed prior expectations but still marked a 7.2% decline compared to the same period in 2022.

Despite the performance exceeding forecasts, various inhibiting factors could impact upcoming shipments. The increased shipments may be attributed to replenishing inventories, primarily driven by consumer market demand. Secondly, PCs are grappling with rising costs and anticipated tariff increases, which might lead to a short-term surge in shipments due to market apprehensions. Lastly, further tightening of IT budgets by businesses has led to commercial market performance falling below predicted figures.

In light of the current market conditions and the fragile macroeconomic environment, IDC has revised its forecast for the global PC market downward, expecting a 13.8% decrease in shipment volumes for 2023 compared to 2022, a year that already saw a 16.6% decline from the previous year. The consecutive double-digit annual declines for two years in the PC market are unprecedented, yet they may set the stage for a subsequent recovery.

Despite the various adjustments the PC market faces in the short term, IDC remains optimistic about a rebound in 2024, primarily due to:

• The PC refresh cycle, with a significant number of aging commercial PCs by 2024, many over four years old, necessitating upgrades and the urgent shift to Windows 11. Compared to 2023, the PC market’s shipment volume is expected to grow 3.4% in 2024.
• Integrating artificial intelligence features into PCs is anticipated to act as a catalyst for upgrades, with further development of use cases and cost reductions over time likely extending to a broader market.
• Increased consumer shipments and market recovery.

With these factors collectively influencing the market, 2024 is poised to be a pivotal year for the PC market, providing a respite from recent challenges. Post-2024, the growth rate of PC shipments is expected to surpass pre-COVID-19 levels, with projections of reaching 285 million units by 2027.

From the first quarter of 2022 to the fourth quarter of 2023, the PC market experienced eight consecutive quarters of year-over-year declines. However, this is still a better scenario compared to the 19 consecutive quarters of decline from the second quarter of 2012 to the fourth quarter of 2016. Additionally, the prices of laptops are currently higher than the levels in 2019, indicating ongoing expansion. IDC forecasts a compound annual growth rate of 3.1% from 2023 to 2027, driven by factors like hybrid work, business refreshes, and growth in high-end PCs.