HBM3 is slated to considerably elevate HBM revenue in 2024 with its superior ASP

Recently, the industry research firm TrendForce released its latest market survey report, demonstrating that due to the increased orders for Nvidia’s AI GPUs and other cloud service providers’ proprietary chips, memory manufacturers are ardently expanding their TSV production lines to elevate the capacity of HBM (High Bandwidth Memory). It is anticipated that the shipment of HBM will witness a remarkable growth of 105% by the year 2024.

According to the analysis, the years 2023 to 2024 are expected to herald the explosive growth phase for AI, wherein AI chips will consolidate a substantial volume of demand, thereby propelling a significant escalation in the utilization of HBM memory. At this juncture, memory manufacturers are confronted with the delicate decision of expanding HBM production. On one hand, there’s a pressing need to satisfy customer requirements and augment market share; on the other, there’s the ever-present threat of excessive production leading to an imbalance in supply and demand, with the potential to destabilize prices. The transformation in semiconductor supply over the past few years has imparted a crucial understanding to memory suppliers: in scenarios where buyers anticipate potential shortages, the demand inherently carries the risk of overbooking.

TrendForce has noted that by 2023, the mainstream market demand will have shifted from HBM2e to HBM3, with anticipated proportions of 50% and 39% respectively. As HBM3 becomes increasingly prevalent on a grand scale, 2024 is poised to witness a dramatic pivot, with HBM3 directly surpassing HBM2e, capturing a market share of 60%. Concurrently, the higher average selling price (ASP) of HBM3 is predicted to catalyze a conspicuous growth in HBM revenue next year.

At present, SK Hynix leads the field in HBM3, principally furnishing products to Nvidia; Samsung is focused on fulfilling orders for cloud service providers, thereby narrowing the market share gap with SK Hynix. In contrast to SK Hynix and Samsung’s expansion plans, Micron is concentrating on the development of HBM3e, with an expectation that its market share will decline. TrendForce anticipates that between 2023 and 2024, SK Hynix and Samsung combined will command approximately 95% of the market share.