Affected by the sluggish demand for 3nm, ASML EUV shipments may fall by 30% next year

To advance to cutting-edge process technologies below 7nm, ASML Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines are undeniably indispensable manufacturing tools. Consequently, in recent years, devices associated with EUV have become the coveted prize among myriad semiconductor manufacturers. They have consistently been in a state of overwhelming demand, prompting ASML to enhance production. Acquiring an EUV lithography machine often necessitates months-long advance reservations.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is arguably the most proficient in deploying EUV lithography technology, a pivotal factor distinguishing them from their competitors. They have progressed to the 3nm process node. The recently launched iPhone 15 Pro series incorporates the 3nm-manufactured A17 Pro chip. However, this hasn’t catalyzed an upsurge in the 3nm demand. According to reports from Wccftech, due to diminished demand for Apple’s forthcoming iPad and MacBook Pro and a decrease in Qualcomm’s 3nm chip orders for Huawei’s new models, coupled with Samsung’s 3nm GAA and Intel’s 20A process falling short of expectations, the market demand for 3nm capacity is projected to decline in 2024.

A laser hitting a tin drop inside ASML’s TWINSCAN NXE:3400 to generate Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) light inside the machine’s light source. These machines are used to ‘print’ chips and cost more than $120 million a piece. Image: ASML

Earlier reports suggested that the fervor for EUV equipment among companies like TSMC, Samsung, and Intel has waned. Aiming to reduce the gap in advanced processing capabilities, Samsung and Intel, who have been heavily investing, are likely to emulate TSMC’s strategy and reduce their EUV equipment orders. Further, there are indications that TSMC has requested key chip manufacturing tool suppliers, including ASML, to postpone the delivery of equipment essential for their foundries.

ASML’s records indicate that, while 60 EUV lithography machines were slated for shipment in 2023, only 22 were dispatched in the first six months. With the diminished shipments of EUV lithography machines in 2023, ASML’s anticipated revenue growth has been revised from 40% to a more modest 25%. The trend of diminishing demand for EUV lithography machines is anticipated to persist, with analysts predicting a significant 20% to 30% slump in ASML’s EUV shipments in 2024.