TrendForce: Global notebook shipments are expected to be only 176 million units in 2023
According to the latest statistics from TrendForce, laptop shipments may drop to 42.9 million units in the fourth quarter of 2022, down 32.3% year-on-year and 7.2% quarter-on-quarter due to the global economic downturn, declining consumer demand, high inventory levels, severe inflation, and other issues. As a result, annual notebook shipments in 2022 will drop to 189 million units, a 23% drop from last year. At the same time, the proportion of shipments in the first half and the second half of the year was 53:47.
At present, the problem of structural imbalance between supply and demand in the notebook computer market has not been fundamentally resolved, resulting in a downward trend in shipments quarter by quarter. TrendForce believes that when overall inventory levels gradually return to normal levels, Chromebooks may be the first segment to recover. It is expected to pick up in the second quarter of 2022, with shipments rebounding to 16.2 million units from 14.4 million units this year.
Although it has been adjusted for five consecutive quarters, the traditional notebook computer market is still under pressure, depending on the performance of the peak sales season. Many companies are also facing a series of sequelae of the COVID-19 epidemic, such as US dollar interest rate hikes, rising borrowing rates, capital expenditure adjustments, and layoffs, resulting in a greater decline in enterprise products than consumer products.
Laptops for game and content creators have higher profits. In the trend of declining global notebook computer shipments, these market segments are even more important and can be regarded as cash cows for manufacturers. Manufacturers use high-spec or customized methods to improve the experience of this part of users and stimulate potential market demand.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects economic growth to be around 2.7% in 2023, down 0.5% from 2022. TrendForce estimates that the global notebook PC market shows no clear signs of recovery in 2023, and although the year-on-year decline has slowed to 6.9%, shipments are only 176 million units.
