The average price of NAND flash memory to continue falling 3~8% in 3Q23

Although there have been persistent efforts to escalate production cuts in recent times, there has been no discernible uptick in demand across various niches, from servers and smartphones to laptops, etc. Consequently, as of the third quarter of 2023, NAND flash memory remains in a state of oversupply. Even with the support of seasonal demand in the latter half of the year, buyers’ cautious attitude towards stockpiling has suppressed the trend for NAND flash memory prices to halt their decline and rise again.

According to the latest survey report by TrendForce, it is anticipated that the average price of NAND flash memory wafers will be the first to rise in the third quarter of this year. However, in the case of module products like SSDs, eMMCs, UFS, etc., the situation is quite the opposite; the prices are expected to continue to plummet due to sluggish demand from downstream customers. TrendForce predicts a fall in the average price of NAND flash memory by 3%~8% in the third quarter of 2023, with the hope of a rebound not before the fourth quarter.

Regarding client SSDs, despite expectations of a gradual recovery in laptop shipments in the third quarter, it is still challenging to reverse the oversupply situation of SSDs, mainly due to lackluster client demand. In order to achieve shipment targets, suppliers are likely to strive for orders with more aggressive pricing, and the average price is expected to fall by 8%~13% on a quarter-on-quarter basis.

As for Enterprise SSDs, with the gradual release of orders in China, along with a turnaround in the stocking momentum of second-line e-commerce and network service providers, there is hope to further stimulate shipments. The quarter-on-quarter drop is expected to narrow to 5%~10%.

In the case of eMMCs, there is essentially no room for a decline; the average price should generally remain stable, although there is a chance that it may slide due to pressure.

For UFS, smartphone manufacturers intend to capitalize on the seasonal demand this quarter to reduce inventory to a safe level. Given the overall shipment volume, the purchasing volume is limited, and the average price is expected to drop quarter-on-quarter by 8%~13%.

Contrarily, due to easing inventory pressure from manufacturers, the pricing for NAND flash memory wafers has become bullish, coupled with a gradual increase in demand. This holds promise for accelerating the equilibrium between supply and demand, and the quarter-on-quarter increase is expected to be between 0%~5%.