OpenAI: GPT May Impact 19% of Job Positions

Not long ago, OpenAI, the American artificial intelligence company responsible for developing ChatGPT, released a new research report titled “GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models.” The paper estimates that large language models, such as ChatGPT, may disrupt approximately 19% of jobs in the United States.

The study examined the potential impact of Generative Pre-trained Transformers (GPTs) and related technologies on the U.S. labor market. It revealed that approximately 80% of American workers have at least 10% of their job tasks potentially affected by GPTs. For roughly 19% of these positions, over 50% of their tasks could be impacted. The influence of GPTs spans all wage levels, with high-income occupations potentially facing greater risks.

Significantly, OpenAI concludes in the paper that large language models exhibit characteristics of General Purpose Technology (GPT), indicating that such models may have substantial economic, social, and policy implications.

General Purpose Technologies must meet three core criteria: a continual improvement over time, widespread adoption across the economy, and the ability to generate complementary innovations. Evidence from AI and machine learning literature demonstrates that GPTs satisfy the first criterion, while the paper provides support for the latter two. OpenAI finds that GPTs can have extensive ramifications throughout the economy, and the complementary innovations they generate, particularly through software and digital tools, can be widely applied to economic activities.

The paper offers a detailed review of the development of Large Language Models (LLMs) and the potential impact of natural language processing technologies on the labor market. OpenAI highlights the exceptional performance of large language models in areas such as translation, classification, creative writing, and code generation, as well as their role in building other tools. Furthermore, the widespread application of LLMs will introduce a range of risks and transformations, necessitating preparedness from society and policymakers.