NAND flash memory prices continue to decline in 2023Q2
Although major suppliers have continuously reduced production in the past, the demand for various subsectors such as servers, smartphones, and laptops has not improved, and NAND flash memory remains in a state of oversupply.
According to a recent TrendForce report, the average price of NAND flash memory will continue to decline in 2023Q2, with a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5% to 10%. The key to subsequent supply-demand equilibrium lies in whether there will be larger-scale production cuts. If the current market demand does not decrease further, NAND flash memory prices may rebound in the fourth quarter; if the peak season continues to be weak, the rebound will be delayed.
In the realm of Client SSDs, initial efforts to deplete inventory by PC OEMs have shown some success, and manufacturers have begun to prepare for mid-year promotions. Vendors continue to clear PCIe 3.0 product inventories, and the uplift in PCIe 4.0 product shipments is not significant, resulting in downward pricing pressure. As QLC product prices continued to decline in the first quarter, TLC product prices also fell; however, the space for further declines in the second quarter is limited, with Client SSD prices expected to drop 5% to 10% quarter-on-quarter. Demand for Enterprise SSDs has recently increased, but oversupply still persists, and prices in the second quarter remain in a downward trend. With NAND flash memory prices facing substantial losses, supplier bargaining margins are reduced, and Enterprise SSD prices are expected to fall 8% to 13% quarter-on-quarter.
Manufacturers have actively promoted large-capacity UFS products, stimulating customers to increase the capacity of their products. Even flagship models with UFS 4.0 are seeing capacity growth. Smartphone component inventories have gradually returned to normal levels, and UFS prices will accelerate their decline, with an expected 8% to 13% quarter-on-quarter drop in the second quarter. In terms of NAND Flash Wafers, module factory inventory levels are gradually returning to normal, and in anticipation of increased demand for SSDs, flash memory cards, and USB drives in the second half of the year, there is a deliberate effort to expand purchase volume and establish low-cost inventory. The original manufacturers’ efforts to slow down new process transitions and reduce production have begun to bear fruit, and it is expected that the price of NAND Flash Wafers in the second quarter will remain essentially flat compared to the first quarter.