DRAM price decline will narrow to 10% to 15% in 2023Q2
TrendForce has released a new research report, revealing that due to some suppliers, including Micron and SK Hynix, initiating DRAM production cutbacks, the decline in DRAM prices for the second quarter of 2023 will narrow to between 10% and 15%, a smaller decrease compared to the nearly 20% drop in the first quarter. However, demand prospects for the second half of 2023 remain uncertain, with no signs of the DRAM price downturn abating, and manufacturers’ inventory levels still remaining high. Subsequent contract prices may only reverse if there are more significant production cutbacks.
PC DRAM has seen buyer procurement volumes decrease significantly for three consecutive quarters, with inventory cycles ranging from 9 to 13 weeks. TrendForce believes that the price drop for 8GB DDR4 memory modules will still exceed 10% in the second quarter. Some OEM manufacturers are considering increasing procurement volumes due to low DRAM prices, but inventory pressure persists, with the anticipated average price decline for PC DRAM in the second quarter falling between 10% and 15%.
In terms of Server DRAM, purchasing interest has declined due to adjustments in demand from OEMs and cloud service providers. However, suppliers are choosing to continue increasing the proportion of Server DRAM in their portfolios due to the uncertainty in consumer markets, which to some extent exacerbates inventory burdens. Although production has been adjusted in a timely manner, it is estimated to be insufficient to halt the downward trend, with the expected average price decline for Server DRAM in the second quarter ranging from 13% to 18%.
Regarding Mobile DRAM, although smartphone inventory levels have returned to relatively healthy positions, manufacturers maintain a conservative approach to production. Suppliers are faced with high inventory levels, and even production cuts contribute to a supply surplus. The anticipated average price decline for Mobile DRAM in the second quarter is projected to be between 10% and 15%. As for Graphics DRAM, buyers are cautious about stocking, and the hotly debated AI topic does not provide significant stimulus. The expected average price decline for Graphics DRAM in the second quarter is also estimated to be between 10% and 15%. In the case of Consumer DRAM, the industry generally takes a conservative view of related demand, with manufacturers responding to oversupply by reducing production. The anticipated average price decline for Consumer DRAM in the second quarter is projected to be between 10% and 15%.