DRAM price decline will expand to 13% to 18% in 2022Q4
TrendForce released a new survey report showing that DRAM shipments in the third quarter of 2022 showed a trend of quarterly decline due to weak demand in the consumer market and inflationary pressures. Due to the sharp decline in demand for memory, end buyers also delayed purchases, resulting in a further increase in supplier inventory levels. The strategies of various DRAM suppliers have not changed much. In the market, the situation of “consolidated Q3/Q4 price negotiations” or “negotiating quantity before pricing” in the market, which are the reasons leading to a ballooning of declining DRAM prices to 13~18% in 4Q22.
For PC DRAM, PC makers continued to focus on destocking due to weak demand for notebook PCs. DDR5 is expected to decline more than DDR4 in the fourth quarter of 2022, but as DDR5 memory penetration continues to rise, coupled with higher unit prices, the penetration rate of DDR5 in the PC memory market will increase to between 13% and 15%, and the price of PC DRAM is expected to drop by about 10% to 15% in the fourth quarter of 2022.
For server DRAM, shipments are expected to decline in the fourth quarter of 2022 due to delays in new platforms and reduced purchases, with an inventory cycle of approximately 9 to 12 weeks. The price of server DRAM is expected to fall by about 13% to 18% in the fourth quarter of 2022. Due to the limited penetration rate of DDR5 memory in the server market in the early stage, it is only about 5%, which has little impact on the overall price.
In terms of mobile DRAM, subject to the continuous adjustment of inventory by smartphone manufacturers, it is expected that prices will drop by about 13% to 18% in the fourth quarter of 2022, and may continue to expand. In terms of graphics card DRAM, the main focus is to reduce inventory, and prices are expected to drop by about 10% to 15% in the fourth quarter of 2022.
