TrendForce: Historically Low 2023 DRAM Demand Bit Growth at Only 8.3%

A previous TrendForce survey report showed that weak electronics demand due to multiple matters, coupled with existing DRAM inventory levels, overall DRAM prices are expected to fall by 3% to 8% in the third quarter of 2022, and some DRAM products used in PCs and smartphones may fall by more than 8%. NAND flash has a similar situation, and TrendForce expects NAND flash price declines to expand to 8% to 13%, and the trend will continue into the fourth quarter of 2022.

Recently, TrendForce released its latest forecast on the supply and demand of the semiconductor storage market. The report shows that the growth rate of DRAM demand in bits in 2023 is only 8.3%, which is lower than 10% for the first time in history, far lower than the growth rate of 14.1% on the supply side. This means that the DRAM market will experience a severe oversupply situation in 2023, and prices are likely to continue to fall.

As inflation continues for some time to come, the primary goal of all memory brands is to consider inventory adjustments. In the past two years, the COVID-19 epidemic has caused a shortage of upstream parts and components, and many memory brands have placed excessive orders. With the current sluggish sales and weak demand, inventory consumption is slow.

TrendForce predicts that the average annual growth rate of PC DRAM installed capacity will be 7% in 2023, the proportion of DDR4 and LPDDR4X will decrease, and the penetration rate of LPDDR5 and DDR5 will continue to increase. The average annual growth rate of server DRAM installed capacity is 7%. After several years of rapid growth, the follow-up momentum is slightly insufficient, the average annual growth rate of installed capacity of mobile devices is only 5%.

At present, the NAND flash memory market is also in a state of oversupply. Although it is expected that prices will continue to decline in the first half of next year, due to their more flexible prices, the lower average price may stimulate the enterprise SSD market. The demand-side growth rate in bits will reach 28.9%, while the supply-side growth rate will be 32.1%.

TrendForce estimates that the average installed capacity of client SSDs will grow at an annual rate of 11%, the lowest in the past three years, the average annual growth rate of enterprise-class SSD capacity is 26%.