TrendForce: Growth in global server shipments to slow in 2023

Recently, TrendForce published its latest data and research, adjusting its expectations for server shipments in 2023, lowering the year-on-year growth rate to 1.31% and estimating shipments to be around 14.43 million units. This reflects a more cautious outlook for the market this year, due to factors such as lower-than-expected demand, adjustments to component inventory, and customer control of financial expenditures.

OEM manufacturers, including Dell, HPE, and Inspur, face significant target adjustments. Dell is still waiting to resolve its half-finished ODM and warehousing issues, and even if it transfers ODM orders to alleviate pressure, it will still be unable to reduce inventory, with a projected decline rate of 8.1% this year. While HPE has not made any significant adjustments, its shipments are expected to decrease, with a decline rate of 6.2%. Inspur is also affected by policy factors, and its shipments are expected to decline by around 3.2%.

Image: Intel

According to surveys, many enterprise customers have reduced their conversion rates after the Intel Ice Lake platform due to cost considerations, which directly affects the share of Sapphire Rapids shipments this year and has an impact on the planning for Emerald Rapids. This has also led to a risk of declining shipments for Dell and HPE.

The demand for China’s server market is still highly supported by policy and is undergoing a significant transformation, but it has not yet had a significant impact on global server demand. TrendForce predicts that China’s server market demand will be relatively weak in the first quarter of this year, gradually recovering after the second quarter for three reasons: 1) a significant reduction in server demand by Internet companies, with procurement quantities halved; 2) delays in national bidding projects; 3) the entry of new suppliers; and 4) various factors in the post-COVID-19  era that have caused companies to postpone procurement plans.