TrendForce: Foundry revenue will decrease by 4% year-on-year in 2023
Over the past period of time, major chip design companies have reduced their orders in wafer foundries, and the trend of cutting orders has spread from the first quarter to the second quarter. Covering various process nodes from mature technology to advanced technology, the capacity utilization rate of wafer foundries will not be ideal in the next few months. According to TrendForce, the output value of the wafer foundry in 2023 will decrease by 4% year-on-year, which is worse than that in 2019.
It is understood that the orders of some process nodes in the second quarter are not even as good as the first quarter, and there is no obvious sign of return. In the second half of the year, some products whose inventory has been revised earlier may have replenishment orders for sales at the end of the year, but what really affects the order volume is still the global political and economic trends. With the changes in the international situation, the supply and demand of wafer foundries will gradually develop regionally, making the capacity utilization rate more obvious in the second half of the year. The ultimate capacity recovery depends on factors such as inventory levels, traditional peak sales seasons, and supply chain allocations.
In terms of 8-inch wafers, as the demand for consumer terminals such as smartphones, TVs, and notebook computers gradually shifted to the off-season, the slow destocking further affected orders for products such as PMICs and MOSFETs. Capacity utilization rates showed no clear signs of recovery in the first and second quarters. The mature process node of 12-inch wafers will have a capacity utilization rate of about 75% to 85% in the first half of 2023. The capacity utilization rate of 28nm is better than that of 55/40nm and other process nodes, and the demand for consumer products is lower than that of the industrial end. The capacity utilization rate of the advanced process node of 12-inch wafers in the first half of 2023 is not ideal. TSMC needs to rely on new 5nm products, and Samsung’s capacity utilization rate of 8nm or below is at a low level.
The medium and long-term supply and demand status of wafer foundry has gradually shifted to the layout of multiple production capacities in various regions, and semiconductors have gradually become strategic resources. In recent years, more than 20 fabs have been under construction around the world, including 6 in mainland China, 5 in Taiwan, 5 in the United States, 4 in Europe, 4 in Japan, South Korea, and Singapore. In addition to commercial and cost factors, government subsidies and the need for localized production are also considered.