TrendForce expects the average DRAM price to drop by 13%-18% in 1Q23

Recently, the market research organization TrendForce released a report saying that due to weak consumer demand, the inventory pressure of DRAM manufacturers continues to increase. In order to avoid a sharp drop in the price of DRAM products, many suppliers such as Micron have begun to actively reduce production. It is estimated that the average price of DRAM will drop by 13-18% in the first quarter of 2023, but the end of the downward cycle is still not seen.

In terms of PC DRAM, due to the current low demand in the notebook market, manufacturers have reduced the purchase of DRAM for two consecutive quarters. The current PC DRAM inventory cycle is about 9-13 weeks. Since the first quarter is the traditional off-season, the inventory pressure is still not small. Micron has begun to reduce PC DRAM production capacity, and SK Hynix will follow suit. It is expected that the market penetration rate of PC DDR5 memory will reach 20% in the first quarter, the price of PC DDR5 memory will drop by about 18-23%, and the price of PC DDR4 memory will drop by about 15-20%.

In terms of server DRAM, due to the off-season effect and the overall weak economy, the demand for servers has declined. TrendForce predicts that the price of Server DDR5 memory will drop by about 18~23% in the first quarter, which is slightly higher than that of Server DDR4 memory.
In terms of Mobile DRAM, as various smartphone brands have lowered their sales targets for 2023, which will have a negative impact on the destocking of Mobile DRAM, it is expected that the price of Mobile DRAM will drop by 10-15% in the first quarter.
In terms of Graphics DRAM, AMD and Nvidia have recently released new graphics cards (including desktop and mobile terminals), and notebooks equipped with related graphics cards will also be shipped one after another. However, due to weak consumer demand and the previous destocking process, manufacturers are still conservative in purchasing strategies for Graphics DRAM.

Consumer DRAM as a whole is still in a downward cycle, and manufacturers’ inventories are still hitting new highs. In addition to taking longer to digest inventories, a larger scale of production cuts is also required, TrendForce predicts that consumer DRAM prices will drop by 18~23% in the first quarter of 2023.