Notebook panel shipments hit a new low in October
In the past two years, the shipments of various computers have skyrocketed, and all manufacturers have made a lot of money, but the market will be saturated, and there will inevitably be a wave of recession afterward. In October 2022, notebook panel shipments reached 13.5 million units, a decrease of 16.1% from the previous month and a 45% decrease from the same period last year, setting a new low for the same period since 2011. In the fourth quarter of this year, due to the uncertainty of the global economy and the high inventory of the entire supply chain, notebook panel shipments will continue to decline. It is estimated that the quarterly shipments will be about 41.7 million pieces, with a quarterly decline of 10.8% and an annual decline of 45.9%.
According to TrendForce, since the brand was out of stock in a large area due to the outbreak of demand in the early stage of the epidemic in 2020, the supply of panels was subsequently increased. Brands continue to purchase panels because they are worried about the shortage of components so the inventory continues to rise. After the COVID-19 epidemic has eased and the shortage problem gradually improves, the accompanying problem is to go to inventory. From the third quarter of 2021, the supply ratio of notebook panels reached 18%, and the ideal range of supply and demand balance is between 11% and 14%. This has clearly entered a stage of oversupply, and the situation is getting worse.
In the first quarter of 2022, the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has exacerbated global inflation, leading to a decline in terminal demand, which has prompted various brands to reduce the purchase of notebook panels. Since the beginning of the second quarter, notebook panel shipments and supply-demand ratios have shown signs of decline. With the decline in demand from end customers and the easing of the congestion problem, the inventory purchased in the past few consecutive quarters has become a difficult problem. Since the third quarter, the scale of corrections has been reflected by the glut ratio, which has stayed under 5%
In the second quarter of this year, some American brands began to manage notebook panel inventory with a strong degree. In the second quarter, the panel purchase volume decreased by 60%, and the inventory returned to a healthy level in the third quarter. Subsequent panel purchases increased by about 40%, indicating that brands will resume purchases after inventory returns to a healthy level. At the start of 3Q22, brands with a higher inventory level were carrying more than 12 weeks. After the panel purchase volume was greatly reduced in the two quarters, the inventory level of more than half of the brands is expected to maintain a healthy level of about 4 to 8 weeks by the end of the year, and panel purchases will resume later.
Looking forward to the first quarter of 2023, although it is the traditional off-season of demand, as the brand’s panel inventory returns to a healthy level, the notebook panel purchases will rebound slightly. It is estimated that in the first quarter of 2023, the shipment of notebook panels will increase by 3.5% quarter-on-quarter, reaching 43.2 million pieces, and the supply-demand ratio is about 13%.
