IDC: The semiconductor market will grow by 20.2% in 2024
Recently, IDC revised its outlook for the semiconductor market, forecasting that the market will hit rock bottom in 2024 and subsequently experience accelerated growth. In its latest forecast, IDC adjusted its projection for 2023 from $518.8 billion to $526.5 billion, while the forecast for 2024 has been raised from $625.9 billion to $632.8 billion. IDC notes that from a demand perspective, the US market is expected to remain resilient, while the Chinese market is projected to start recovering in the second half of 2024.
Despite the 2023 projection increasing to $526.5 billion, it still represents a 12% decrease from the $598 billion recorded in 2022. Conversely, the anticipated $632.8 billion for 2024 suggests a substantial growth of 20.2%. IDC believes that as the long-term inventory adjustments in the two largest sub-segments, personal computers, and smartphones, come to an end, the semiconductor market’s growth outlook will improve significantly.
Moreover, the demand for servers and terminal devices powered by Artificial Intelligence (AI) is continually rising and accelerating. Between 2024 and 2026, this demand is expected to drive more semiconductor-related industries, catalyzing new upgrade cycles for enterprises and thus fostering sustainable market growth.
IDC asserts that the semiconductor market has bottomed out and is now showing quarterly growth. A notable early indicator of this trend is the rising average selling price of DRAM. It is anticipated that suppliers will continue to control capacity and utilization to foster a sustainable recovery. By the end of this forecast period in 2026, AI chips are expected to account for nearly $200 billion in semiconductor revenue.