Global notebook market is recovering, Shipments are expected to grow by 2~5% in 2024

TrendForce has unveiled its latest investigative report, indicating that by the second quarter of 2023, the global notebook inventory levels had stabilized healthily. Numerous manufacturers have commenced restocking, concurrently gearing up for third-quarter sales. Furthermore, Chromebooks peaked just as Google was poised to levy licensing fees, propelling the overall Q2 2023 shipments to 42.52 million units—a quarter-over-quarter surge of 21.6%. Shipments for the first half of 2023 aggregated at 77.50 million units, marking a year-on-year decline of 23.5%.

The report elucidates that the impetus for growth in the latter half of 2023 will be driven by end-user purchasing vigor. However, given the economic ambiguities in the Western world, traditional seasonal sales have been suppressed. Moreover, a portion of the demand has already been realized in the second quarter. Hence, the projected overall laptop shipments for Q3 2023 are estimated at around 44.13 million units—a moderate sequential growth of 3.8%. The annual shipments are anticipated to be approximately 163 million units, witnessing a year-on-year decrease of 12.2%.

With inventory levels now harmonized, the overall global laptop shipments for 2024 are expected to bottom out and rebound, with growth projections oscillating between 2% to 5%, slightly surpassing the pre-pandemic levels. As the inventory conundrums are mitigated, the market is gradually regaining its vitality. Nevertheless, any aspirations for more substantial growth will hinge predominantly upon the trajectories of the two mammoth consumer markets: China and the United States.

At present, the Chinese market continues to grapple with challenges. The U.S. market, with its robust replenishment demand in 2023, is anticipated to moderate its growth in 2024. In contrast, after two protracted years of recalibration, should the economic climate in Europe ameliorate, it might bolster consumer resurgence in the latter half of the year. Benefitting from its burgeoning consumer demographic, the Southeast Asian market exhibits a persistent growth trend, poised for a modest increment.