Previously, TrendForce expected that the price decline of NAND flash memory would expand from 30% to 35% in the third quarter of 2023, and may drop by another 20% in the fourth quarter. Subsequently, both Kioxia and Micron stated that they would reduce the output of 3D NAND flash memory. The former even gave a specific ratio, which is about 30%.
Although 3D NAND flash memory manufacturers have gradually cut production capacity to balance supply and demand and stabilize prices, the huge inventory is such that prices will continue to decline for some time to come. According to
TomsHardware, some analysts predict that by mid-2023, the price of
SSDs in the market may be halved.
Slowing demand for PCs from some businesses and consumers means lower demand for various computer components, including processors and graphics cards, although demand for devices like SSDs and memory has fallen more than for other types of products. Mainly this type of product is relatively easy to produce, the competition in the market is fierce, and PC manufacturers, parts manufacturers, or distributors have a lot of inventory.
At present, consumers can already buy suitable SSDs at moderate prices in the market. As the price of SSDs may drop by 40% to 50% in the next few months, the installed cost of users will be further reduced. It is still a mystery how much SSD inventory is in the market. Analysts believe it will take at least two quarters to digest, so the trend of lower SSD prices will continue for two quarters or more.
How much cheaper each type or each SSD will be is uncertain, but expect mainstream products like PCIe 3.0 x4 or PCIe 4.0 x4 to get even more affordable in the next six months. SSD makers may choose to sell high-end models with premium 3D NAND flash or high-performance products with PCIe 5.0 x4 interfaces to boost profits and make up for the drop in revenue from other SSD price cuts.
