TSMC executives expect chip shortages to continue until 2025
The topic of chip supply shortage has been going on for more than a year. During this period, many companies or professionals have made time-based predictions, and most of them have shown relatively optimistic views. However, with the passage of time, the situation has not improved significantly. These predictions seem to deviate from reality and are more like words to comfort everyone.
Recently, Dr. Yuh-Jier Mii, senior vice president of R&D at TSMC, said in an interview with IEEE Spectrum, the fabs currently under construction or about to be put on sale will have to wait two to three years before they are completed and put into production, and the chip shortage will not be eased until then. This means that the chip shortage will continue until 2024-2025.
Compared with many industry insiders in the past, Mii’s remarks are relatively pessimistic. However, as an executive of the world’s largest wafer foundry, his views may be closer to the actual situation. Instead of blaming the shortage of chips on the COVID-19 pandemic, as many do, Mii pointed to the fact that chips are now used in almost every product, which has led to higher requirements for the semiconductor industry, but the reduction in the scale of investment in the past has resulted in the lack of sufficient production facilities to meet the needs of various industries.
Mii believes that on the bright side, related companies in the semiconductor industry have understood what happened and are increasing their investment to ensure that production capacity meets demand. Mii admitted that even a company like TSMC with cutting-edge semiconductor manufacturing technology is very difficult to advance the process node now. In the past, it may have been possible to fine-tune the original process, but now each generation of the process must find new ways in terms of transistor architecture, materials, processes, and tools.
