Linus Torvalds issues the reasons why ARM won’t win the server market
Why are there more servers running Ubuntu than Red Hat? Is it possible for an ARM architecture-based processor to challenge the monopoly of x86 processors in the server market? Linux author, Linus Torvalds gives his answer, and he believes that because developers are more familiar with their x86-based development environment, ARM will not be able to win the server market for the foreseeable future.
When developers deploy applications in the cloud, they will try to choose the same system as their working environment, match the local settings of the test, and their working environment is basically an x86 system.
The preference for x86 will affect the decision of cloud service providers, x86 will be more valued, and ARM will reduce its importance and become irrelevant. That’s why x86 dominates the server market.
Linus Torvalds wrote:
I can pretty much guarantee that as long as everybody does cross-development, the platform won’t be all that stable. Or successful. Some people think that “the cloud” means that the instruction set doesn’t matter. Develop at home, deploy in the cloud. That’s bullshit. If you develop on x86, then you’re going to want to deploy on x86, because you’ll be able to run what you test “at home” (and by “at home” I don’t mean literally in your home, but in your work environment). Which means that you’ll happily pay a bit more for x86 cloud hosting, simply because it matches what you can test on your own local setup, and the errors you get will translate better. This is true even if what you mostly do is something ostensibly cross-platform like just run perl scripts or whatever. Simply because you’ll want to have as similar an environment as possible.
Which in turn means that cloud providers will end up making more money from their x86 side, which means that they’ll prioritize it, and any ARM offerings will be secondary and probably relegated to the mindless dregs (maybe front-end, maybe just static html, that kind of stuff). Guys, do you really not understand why x86 took over the server market? It wasn’t just all price. It was literally this “develop at home” issue. Thousands of small companies ended up having random small internal workloads where it was easy to just get a random whitebox PC and run some silly small thing on it yourself. Then as the workload expanded, it became a “real server”. And then once that thing expanded, suddenly it made a whole lot of sense to let somebody else manage the hardware and hosting, and the cloud took over. Do you really not understand? This isn’t rocket science. This isn’t some made up story. This is literally what happened, and what killed all the RISC vendors, and made x86 be the undisputed king of the hill of servers, to the point where everybody else is just a rounding error. Something that sounded entirely fictional a couple of decades ago. Without a development platform, ARM in the server space is never going to make it. Trying to sell a 64-bit “hyperscaling” model is idiotic, when you don’t have customers and you don’t have workloads because you never sold the small cheap box that got the whole market started in the first place.
